Bank of America sees significant opportunities for Greek banks from having a presence in countries such as Cyprus and Bulgaria, which is expected to offer strong new sources of revenue in the long term, just as the benefits of the Recovery Fund in Greece fade in the coming years.

This is one of the reasons why the American bank – while generally positive about all Greek systemic banks – places Eurobank as its top choice.

As it notes, while the investment bet on Greece remains a good one and it expects strong economic figures in the country over the next three years, it believes that Cyprus and Bulgaria provide further opportunities in the long term. The Recovery Fund financing will be completed by 2026 (unless extended), but disbursements may be made later, mainly in 2027 and partly in 2028, as estimated by BoA.

However, Cyprus and Bulgaria are expected to grow at a stronger pace than Greece and the eurozone in the coming years, so Eurobank, which has a presence in both countries (Hellenic Bank, Postbank), will benefit most. This is thanks to two factors: the likely entry of Cyprus into the Schengen zone as of 2026, and the accession of Bulgaria to the eurozone from the start of next year.