The ruling New Democracy party is searching for an electoral strategy that will allow it to remain in power despite its decline in the polls. The loss of support creates a complicated scenario and alters the electoral calculations. 

For the time being, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis declares his determination not to attempt any change to the electoral law, insisting on respect for the institutions.  

Although many are urging him to reconsider his stance, according to the indications so far, even if the law determining the bonus seats is changed – as some are urging the PM to do – to give the first party 50 additional seats regardless of the percentage of votes it secures in the elections, and even if the threshold for entering the 300-seat Parliament is increased from the current 3% to a possible 5%, it is not certain that it would be enough to secure the conservatives a governing majority. 

In this light, the primary goal should not be to attempt games with the electoral law, but to behave and implement policies that will facilitate the creation of a coalition government. 

This is dictated by poll data and common sense. Not to mention the fact that, even if possible, it would probably not be socially acceptable and practically viable for a party with a low percentage in the elections to form a one-party government. 

If we accept this reality, we move to another kind of question: with which parties of the ones that enter Parliament, which would make them potential coalition partners, and under what conditions, could a viable coalition be formed. The question in this case for New Democracy is whether it will seek support from the Center or from the Right. The choice will determine the strategy it will follow, as well as the policies it will have to implement in the period leading up to the elections. 

The equation is made even more complex by the fact that, for their own personal reasons, PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis and former conservative premier Antonis Samaras (if he establishes a new party) are unlikely to support a government under the current prime minister.

Another dimension of the puzzle, which theoretically advocates raising the entry threshold, is that if small parties at the extremes of the political spectrum do not enter Parliament, some populist voices will be weakened and, in a sense, efforts to reach compromises and collaborations will be facilitated.

Finally, it is obvious that the next moves of former SYRIZA prime minister Alexis Tsipras will have a decisive influence on how the political landscape will be shaped. If his nascent new party participates in the elections, political balances will change radically and will require a redesign of plans by all sides.